WHY SPECULATE on Future? - May get something right!
Most of tomorrow's systems are under development now. (UCGIS)
Some of tomorrow's systems already exist, but are not diffused through the hierarchy of potential users.
Speculating on GIS's future is valuable because of:
Planning for the purchase of hardware and software.
Expansion into new fields and application areas.
Geographic information science, a new science that is used to design future information systems.
Geographic Information Science
A mature technology like word processors, spreadsheets
- so easy a child could do it
An immature technology whose development requires significant advances in research
- computer scientists, electrical engineers
A technology that requires a strong theoretical and conceptual framework that has not yet been developed
- compare statistics, computer science
Research Priorities for Geographic Information Science
Spatial Data Acquisition & Integration
Extensions to Geographic Representation
Cognition of Geographic Information
Interoperability of Geographic Information
Spatial Analysis in a GIS Environment
The Future of the Spatial Information Infrastructure
Uncertainty in Spatial Data and GIS-based Analyses
Compared to 10 years ago:
Acquiring data for a new GIS is no longer a major problem.
GPS has become a major source of new GIS data, and comes increasingly from integrated GPS/GIS systems.
Digital map images such as scanned maps and air photos are often used as a background image for cross-layer registration and update.
Remote sensing will become an all-important source of GIS data as the cost of data falls and new sorts of data arrive.
Data exchange will become more common and has been facilitated by exchange standards.
Digital Earth
A new wave of technological innovation
- capture, store, process and display
- unprecedented amount of data
e.g., Landsat satellites
- high-rez photo of the entire Earth
- every 2 weeks for the last 20 years
- drop in bucket
The study of the Earth requires many different levels of detail.
Global forecast simulations use resolutions in the 40 to 200
kilometer range.
10 kilometer resolution is characteristic of some atmospheric
measurements from geosynchronous orbit.
1 kilometer resolution is characteristic of weather
satellite Earth images from geosynchronous
orbit.
30 meters is the resolution of a Landsat
image.
Some recent low Earth orbit commercial and Earth resource
satellites have resolutions
approaching 1 meter.